Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
67 0x6749…e076 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1
politics 19% −$1
sports 11% $0
economics 11% $0
crypto 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage137d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $223 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 11 $112 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $113 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $113 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $113 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $113 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $110 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $110 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 17d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $110 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $11 26d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $110 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $60 28d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 36d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $111 37d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 40d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 41d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 41d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 42d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 46d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 47d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $112 68d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $112 68d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $112 71d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $112 71d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $112 73d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $112 74d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 78d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 78d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $112 80d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $112 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records