Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x674b…4f07 crypto 609 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,336 (+7%) realized +$7,825 · open −$489
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%398W / 669L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day88.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,227
other 1% −$414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 565 -74.2% -76.6% 16% 16% -76.5%
≤30d 894 -47.3% -52.3% 32% 31% -41.8%
≤90d 1067 -38.5% -44.3% 37% 36% -35.7%
all 1067 -38.5% -44.3% 37% 36% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.3% 36% -35.7%
10% ← realistic here -49.7% 36% -41.8%
15% -54.5% 33% -47.5%
20% -59.0% 1% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$94 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2,417
Realized+$7,825
Unrealized−$489
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses398 / 669
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1067 / 609
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$176
Trades / day88.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1067 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 52¢ 37¢ $302 $215 −$87 (-29%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $518 $192 −$326 (-63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Down 71¢ 56¢ $182 $145 −$37 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Up 73¢ 44¢ $146 $88 −$58 (-40%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Up 71¢ 50¢ $122 $86 −$35 (-29%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Down 67¢ 50¢ $67 $49 −$17 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 2PM ET Jun 22 $0 −$182 -142449%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 9PM ET Jun 22 $0 −$288 -73760%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $0 −$142 -67616%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $158 −$179 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$7 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $128 −$214 -167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $55 −$102 -185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $89 −$151 -169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $125 −$163 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $111 −$111 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $182 −$182 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 5PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $137 −$137 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $522 −$522 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 7AM ET Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $170 −$165 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$47 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $55 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $45 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $73 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $68 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $74 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $73 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $74 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $61 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $22 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $24 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $32 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $63 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $71 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $45 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $74 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $75 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $62 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $74 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $74 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $75 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $11 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $11 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $31 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,417.13 · official $2,419.48 (match) · 3500 history records