Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x674d…912c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,439 (-24%) realized −$1,515 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$662
14 days−$931
30 days−$841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$1,413
sports 23% +$117
world 3% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -62.7% -66.3% 10% 10% -54.7%
≤30d 15 -58.4% -62.3% 13% 13% -51.8%
≤90d 17 -63.3% -66.8% 12% 12% -55.3%
all 42 -16.8% -24.7% 31% 31% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 31% -34.6%
10% -31.9% 31% -40.8%
15% -38.5% 31% -46.6%
20% -44.5% 29% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$111 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized−$1,515
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage167d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 70¢ $354 $430 +$76 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $387 −$27 -7%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 21 $83 −$83 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$90 +84%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 −$5 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $68 −$7 -11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $145 +$90 +62%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21? May 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-08? Feb 11 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $202 −$202 -100%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $216 +$220 +102%
Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 06 $98 −$21 -21%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $193 −$66 -34%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $113 +$182 +161%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Jan 31 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-24? Jan 28 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 24 $120 +$120 +100%
Dalton Schultz: Anytime Touchdown Jan 24 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $101 +$208 +206%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $106 +$166 +156%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jan 13 $253 −$253 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $194 +$129 +67%
Will Como 1907 vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Jan 10 $194 +$216 +112%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jan 09 $68 +$138 +202%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $57 +$84 +147%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $62 −$5 -8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $48 −$5 -10%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $49 −$5 -11%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jan 06 $34 +$15 +45%
West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 06 $22 +$13 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $360 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 41¢ $361 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $387 13h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $83 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $117 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $95 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $101 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $197 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $107 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $107 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $112 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $125 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $127 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $72 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 14¢ $61 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $68 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $126 14d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 26¢ $75 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $235 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $145 22d
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $69 39d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $74 120d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 36¢ $431 133d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 97¢ $436 134d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 48¢ $216 134d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $202 134d
Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $77 135d
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-02-06? SELL Yes 25¢ $127 135d
Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $98 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.50 · official $430.50 (match) · 87 history records