Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6752…25c2 sports 661 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,094 (-11%) realized −$1,091 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%287W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$641
other 37% −$135
crypto 16% +$17
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -38.6% -44.5% 12% 12% -44.6%
≤30d 88 -16.0% -24.0% 28% 26% +1.0%
≤90d 301 -16.1% -24.1% 31% 28% -24.4%
all 619 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 41% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 41% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 36% -24.5%
15% -26.5% 30% -31.8%
20% -33.7% 26% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1,091
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses287 / 332
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions42
Markets (closed)619 / 661
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +468%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: SC Internacional (-1.5) May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $25 +$20 +80%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7 −$1 -11%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 23 $5 +$10 +203%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 +$7 +36%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $30 +$39 +128%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $76 +$84 +110%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 23 $10 +$10 +95%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5) May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 22 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 22 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) May 22 $41 +$36 +88%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $29 −$13 -44%
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: CA Peñarol (-1.5) May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 22 $20 +$16 +80%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 31m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.15 · official $39.15 (match) · 3500 history records