Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6752…bc58 politics 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,755 (+1%) realized +$2,753 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$1,718per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$46
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$184
other 33% −$97
sports 12% +$2,998
economics 2% −$7
tech 1% −$2
world 1% +$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 -4.6% -13.7% 8% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 102 +0.7% -8.9% 9% 6% -8.0%
all 161 -4.0% -13.1% 17% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 8% -8.7%
10% -21.5% 8% -17.4%
15% -29.0% 7% -25.4%
20% -36.0% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,357) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$16 · ×11.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized+$2,753
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,718
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $194 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $158 $159 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 22 $3,212 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,955 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,282 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,432 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,486 −$4 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $960 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $798 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,772 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,935 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $957 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $954 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $960 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,603 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,032 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $72 +$70 +97%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $9,516 −$10 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $4,522 −$5 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $55 +$41 +73%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,871 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $336 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $640 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,424 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $7,450 −$9 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $310 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,695 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $3,352 −$4 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $2,075 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,100 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5,925 −$6 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,733 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $631 50m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $632 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $479 16h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $479 18h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $811 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $194 19h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $813 20h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $343 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $344 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $708 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $709 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $344 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $344 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,017 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,018 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $851 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $852 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $923 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $924 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $807 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $809 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $792 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $793 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,107 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,109 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $958 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $960 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $797 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.95 · official $353.95 (match) · 632 history records