Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6754…292b other 120 markets active 3h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$311 (-0%) realized −$311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,548per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$124
politics 41% −$103
economics 3% −$7
culture 2% −$6
sports 2% −$119
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 55 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 112 -2.5% -11.8% 11% 6% -9.7%
all 118 -2.4% -11.7% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,651) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$6 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized−$311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,548
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $345 $345 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $203 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,581 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $2,585 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,762 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,455 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $192 +$3 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,576 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,597 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $79 +$63 +79%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,504 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $75 +$73 +97%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,883 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,592 −$4 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,959 −$5 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $453 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 01 $618 +$1 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $704 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $8,601 −$10 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,369 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,118 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $4,101 −$6 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $549 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $619 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $204 3h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $346 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $620 3h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $555 4h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $556 7h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $624 7h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $625 9h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 29h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 33h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $791 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $792 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $677 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $678 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $650 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $651 4d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,205 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,206 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,526 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,528 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,479 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,481 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,282 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,284 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,587 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,587 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.79 · official $548.79 (match) · 374 history records