Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6755…4c5d world 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$65 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate59%34W / 24L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 21% +$3
other 20% +$25
world 20% −$9
politics 19% −$18
finance 17% −$3
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$43
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$21
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 67% +0.8%
≤30d 3 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 67% +0.8%
≤90d 22 -2.6% -11.8% 82% 27% -9.6%
all 58 -6.0% -15.0% 59% 17% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 17% -10.1%
10% -23.1% 9% -18.7%
15% -30.5% 5% -26.6%
20% -37.3% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses34 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage227d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No 93¢ 96¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 97¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 27 $15 +$4 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 27 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 20 $34 −$34 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 20 $19 +$1 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 20 $19 +$4 +21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 20 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 27 $14 −$7 -50%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 17 $7 $0 +4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 17 $23 +$11 +47%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March Apr 12 $12 +$1 +12%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 04 $16 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 04 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $21 +$1 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 04 $1,626 +$7 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 27 $1,619 −$3 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Mar 27 $21 −$10 -49%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1,611 $0 -0%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 25 $20 +$8 +39%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 18 $22 +$4 +19%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $1,587 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 18 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026? Mar 08 $25 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter O Feb 22 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026? Feb 22 $16 $0 +1%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $14 −$2 -12%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $26 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 25 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $14 −$7 -50%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $53 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 09 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o BUY Yes 78¢ $15 38d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 38d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $25 38d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 61d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 63d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 63d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 63d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 63d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 79¢ $10 63d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 71d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 71d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $23 71d
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 71d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t SELL No 100¢ $16 71d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t BUY No 94¢ $15 76d
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 76d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March BUY No 89¢ $12 84d
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 84d
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $9 88d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,626 88d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $21 88d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 88d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $19 92d
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $21 92d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,615 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $1,615 92d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 36¢ $11 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.79 · official $137.79 (match) · 145 history records