Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
67 0x6759…95a7 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$819 (+6%) realized +$819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$783
7 days+$160
14 days+$791
30 days+$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,962
other 14% −$1,840
crypto 11% −$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 33% -0.7%
≤30d 59 +17.3% +6.1% 41% 41% -4.1%
≤90d 59 +17.3% +6.1% 41% 41% -4.1%
all 59 +17.3% +6.1% 41% 41% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 41% -4.1%
10% -4.0% 41% -13.3%
15% -13.3% 39% -21.7%
20% -21.8% 37% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$179 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 35
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage23d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $204 +$309 +152%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $204 +$320 +157%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $170 −$39 -23%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $97 +$277 +285%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $86 −$84 -97%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $225 −$222 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $248 −$16 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $179 −$175 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $242 +$188 +78%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $407 +$520 +128%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $204 +$111 +55%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $914 −$894 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $610 +$303 +50%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $614 −$600 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $386 +$600 +155%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $366 −$129 -35%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $512 −$500 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $723 −$710 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $249 −$246 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $181 +$123 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $506 −$495 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $300 −$294 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $311 −$304 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $617 +$320 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $186 +$125 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $205 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $713 +$443 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $304 +$236 +78%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $298 +$313 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $338 +$689 +204%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $53 +$41 +78%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $304 +$360 +118%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $103 +$780 +760%
Quentin Halys vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $10 +$52 +510%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 29 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 29 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $196 +$50 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $105 −$28 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $104 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $209 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 29 $210 +$55 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $104 +$78 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $512 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 39¢ $204 3h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Lorenzo Sonego 100¢ $524 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Magdalena Frech 22¢ $131 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 27¢ $170 3h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 38¢ $204 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 87¢ $374 4h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 22¢ $97 4h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 10¢ $86 4h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $225 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 46¢ $225 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $248 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $148 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $26 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $430 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 55¢ $242 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 99¢ $291 7d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 59¢ $315 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $102 7d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 37¢ $204 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 75¢ $442 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 32¢ $92 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 32¢ $102 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 70¢ $194 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 39¢ $111 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records