Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
67 0x6761…1925 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,041 (+29%) realized +$5,041 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate74%37W / 13L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$5,149
world 27% +$113
other 3% −$251
crypto 1% +$35
tech 0% +$4
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 79% 64% +23.7%
≤30d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 79% 64% +23.7%
≤90d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 79% 64% +23.7%
all 50 +18.7% +7.4% 74% 60% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 60% +17.2%
10% -2.9% 52% +6.0%
15% -12.2% 38% -4.2%
20% -20.8% 26% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$66 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.88 per $1 lost it wins $6.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,041
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage592d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28 +$16 +58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$7 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +30%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will J Balvin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Ojitos Lindos be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$2 +38%
Will MIA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Tainy perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Me Porto Bonito be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $3 $0 +8%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Jan 28 $3 $0 +5%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $1 +$4 +409%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $3 +$3 +101%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $4 −$3 -65%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? Jan 22 $3 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31? Jan 21 $25 +$8 +30%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 21 $100 +$82 +82%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Iran strike on Qatar today? Jun 23 $566 −$198 -35%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $3,157 −$349 -11%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 13 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Iran strike on Israel in June? Jun 13 $351 +$391 +112%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 13 $100 +$24 +24%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 13 $100 +$78 +78%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 13 $50 +$63 +127%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
US-China trade deal before June? May 12 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Apr 14 $4,108 +$2,300 +56%
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Apr 14 $4,686 +$2,208 +47%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $142 +$109 +77%
Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? Nov 06 $3,000 +$532 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $44 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $19 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 88¢ $1 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records