trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $71 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +23% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Jul 01 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 28 | $23 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 26 | $13 | −$2 | -16% |
| US military action against Iran by Friday? | Jun 23 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 19 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Jun 19 | $12 | +$15 | +118% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Jun 07 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Jun 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri | Jun 05 | $1 | −$1 | -69% |
| Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Jun 04 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 03 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea | Jun 02 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | May 31 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 30 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | May 30 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | May 29 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 29% | 14% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 29% | 14% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 29% | 14% | -9.1% |
| all | 25 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 40% | 8% | -7.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.0% | 8% | -7.2% |
| 10% | -16.8% | 8% | -16.1% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 4% | -24.2% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 4% | -31.6% |