Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
67 0x6764…a305 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$121 (+11%) realized +$127 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$107
14 days+$182
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$42
sports 34% +$144
world 23% +$42
crypto 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +34.5% +21.6% 53% 47% +5.8%
≤30d 17 +34.4% +21.6% 59% 53% +9.8%
≤90d 17 +34.4% +21.6% 59% 53% +9.8%
all 17 +34.4% +21.6% 59% 53% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.6% 53% +9.8%
10% +9.9% 47% -0.7%
15% -0.7% 47% -10.3%
20% -10.4% 41% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage10d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 +$50 +94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$33 +160%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $81 +$35 +44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $45 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $20 +$32 +156%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $49 +$29 +59%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $108 +$14 +13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $111 +$61 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $60 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 81¢ $20 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 79¢ $20 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 7h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 38¢ $20 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $81 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $31 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $20 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $41 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $10 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $10 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $20 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $78 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $49 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $49 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $122 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.55 · official $213.56 (match) · 48 history records