Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x6764…1482 crypto 54 markets active 2d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+34%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$61
14 days+$57
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$17
sports 12% +$54
other 7% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +65.9% +50.1% 56% 56% +93.9%
≤30d 54 -8.3% -17.0% 39% 37% +19.2%
≤90d 54 -8.3% -17.0% 39% 37% +19.2%
all 54 -8.3% -17.0% 39% 37% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 37% +19.2%
10% -25.0% 35% +7.8%
15% -32.2% 33% -2.6%
20% -38.9% 26% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$5 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$8 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$5 +225%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$27 +642%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $28 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 41h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records