Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6765…5478
politics · 168 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,668 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,705 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,097
Realized−$2,705
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses38 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,395
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$21
14 days−$129
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $880 $879 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $217 $217 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,033 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,990 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,240 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,065 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $77 +$34 +44%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $943 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $3,150 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,910 −$4 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $929 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $364 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $414 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $420 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,413 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $64 +$42 +65%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,876 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,944 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,442 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,844 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $4,285 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,660 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $2,706 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $2,624 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $4,126 −$5 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $2,186 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 15 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 15 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $2,172 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $5,767 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$127
other 28% +$206
sports 19% −$2,734
world 3% −$21
tech 2% −$7
economics 2% −$5
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $880 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 25h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 27h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $217 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $964 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $966 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $975 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $976 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $738 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $739 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $903 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $904 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,062 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,064 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $774 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $776 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $809 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $810 7d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 69¢ $77 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $942 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $943 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,010 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 -6.3% -15.2% 9% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 115 -10.6% -19.1% 7% 3% -11.0%
all 166 -1.5% -10.9% 23% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -10.6%
10% -19.4% 10% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 8% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,096.57 · official $1,096.57 (match) · 557 history records