Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x6766…7324 crypto 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate92%120W / 10L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$11
politics 24% +$6
other 1% +$8
tech 0% −$2
world 0% +$2
economics 0% +$3
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 20% -8.9%
≤90d 21 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 5% -9.3%
all 130 +1.0% -8.6% 92% 18% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 18% -9.3%
10% -17.4% 10% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 5% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses120 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)130 / 135
History coverage654d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 07 $6 +$2 +29%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 31 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 31 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? May 15 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? May 07 $164 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on April 30? May 03 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? Apr 20 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? Mar 30 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $173 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 9? Mar 11 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 09 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 26? Jan 26 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 23? Jan 24 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 20 Jan 21 $169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $168 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $111 11d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 96¢ $4 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 17d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? BUY No 91¢ $6 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $164 44d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 77¢ $6 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $164 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $154 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $150 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 68d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $161 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $161 73d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $2 74d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $169 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $171 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $167 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $170 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $174 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $172 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $173 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $164 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $170 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $164 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $173 98d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.93 · official $121.93 (match) · 284 history records