Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
67 0x6766…b923 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$300 (+62%) realized +$317 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +151% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +127% what you keep after slip
Net edge+127%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$224
sports 7% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+127.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -9.0% -17.7% 0% 0% -17.7%
≤30d 4 +152.2% +128.2% 75% 75% +93.6%
≤90d 5 +151.3% +127.4% 80% 80% +97.6%
all 5 +151.3% +127.4% 80% 80% +97.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +127.4% 80% +97.6%
10% +105.6% 80% +78.7%
15% +85.7% 60% +61.4%
20% +67.5% 60% +45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +151% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$7 · ×10.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×40.95 per $1 lost it wins $40.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage113d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $60 $44 −$16 (-26%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $80 −$7 -9%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $39 +$160 +412%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $51 +$16 +30%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $41 +$73 +176%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $32 +$47 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.98 · official $222.98 (match) · 132 history records