Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x6767…5c5c other 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$167 (+0%) realized +$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate84%158W / 29L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 28% +$2
other 27% +$32
politics 16% +$88
world 14% +$26
economics 6% +$8
culture 3% +$1
tech 3% +$2
finance 2% +$6
weather 1% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 47 -6.2% -15.1% 83% 0% -9.1%
all 187 -1.0% -10.5% 84% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 1% -17.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.5 per $1 lost it wins $7.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses158 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage240d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 99¢ 96¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 21 $98 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $174 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? Jun 11 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 31 $6 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 24 $172 +$3 +2%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1,634 +$6 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $343 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 06 $179 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Cat" during healthcare event? Apr 24 $405 $0 +0%
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Apr 23 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearanc Apr 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during Apr 22 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Trump say "Sweet" or "Crude" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance o Apr 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Aircraft Carrier" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance o Apr 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Largest inflation" or "Worst inflation" during CNBC: S Apr 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appea Apr 21 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Trump say "Negotiator" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on Apri Apr 21 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Gay" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21? Apr 21 $437 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Soleimani" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April Apr 21 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during CNBC: Squawk Box Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Fake news" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April Apr 21 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Blockade" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April Apr 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Will no qualifying event occur on April 21? Apr 21 $145 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 20 $212 +$1 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8? Apr 08 $114 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $208 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $203 +$1 +1%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March? Apr 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 29 $122 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Mar 29 $8 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25? Mar 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 24? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris m Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20? Mar 24 $140 $0 +0%
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 20 $9 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 19 $2,246 +$5 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 19 $214 −$12 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $98 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $56 6d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $19 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $98 6d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $107 9d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $105 15d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 20d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $167 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 99¢ $175 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 97¢ $172 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 30d
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19? SELL No 99¢ $7 33d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $168 35d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $167 35d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 36d
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19? BUY No 99¢ $7 36d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $175 36d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $172 41d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $171 41d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $171 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 97¢ $6 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $177 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $2 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $179 49d
Will Trump say "Cat" during healthcare event? SELL Yes 100¢ $405 58d
Will Trump say "Cat" during healthcare event? BUY Yes 100¢ $405 58d
Weed rescheduled by December 31? SELL No 37¢ $11 59d
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $12 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.76 · official $17.68 (match) · 671 history records