Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6768…4089
sports · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage262d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $2 $0 +21%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 +10%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 25 $27 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 22% $0
world 20% −$1
politics 20% $0
other 19% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $19 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $8 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $28 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $31 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $21 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $21 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 250d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 254d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 254d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 254d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 254d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 254d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $8 254d
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $22 254d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $8 254d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $6 255d
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $22 255d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $23 255d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $6 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 32 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.02 · official $15.02 (match) · 108 history records