Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x6769…f8b9 sports 479 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$851 (+6%) realized +$844 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%262W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$71
14 days+$119
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$361
other 30% +$405
finance 0% −$25
world 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.3% -5.6% 56% 52% -4.6%
≤30d 104 -19.8% -27.4% 38% 38% -12.8%
≤90d 439 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 52% -10.1%
all 475 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 54% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 54% -4.9%
10% -17.9% 54% -14.0%
15% -25.8% 51% -22.3%
20% -33.1% 43% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized+$844
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses262 / 213
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions4
Markets (closed)475 / 479
History coverage142d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 78¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$72 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$68 +67%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$49 +474%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $20 +$13 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 +$11 +55%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 +$17 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 +$8 +42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $20 +$17 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $20 +$14 +70%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $20 +$20 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $561 +$503 +90%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 26 $53 −$52 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 26 $52 −$51 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$17 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 24 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $61 −$20 -34%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $162 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $143 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $174 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes $2 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) SELL Spurs 93¢ $34 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 SELL Over 55¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.49 · official $487.49 (match) · 962 history records