Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x676c…604f sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%23W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$4
other 22% −$5
politics 19% −$3
crypto 10% −$2
economics 6% $0
world 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.9%
all 193 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses23 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)193 / 193
History coverage173d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 193 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 27 $34 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $205 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $30 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $324 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 26 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 26 $42 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $299 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 25 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $196 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $40 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $134 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 90¢ $33 1h
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $34 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $37 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $37 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL No 98¢ $36 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY No 98¢ $36 21d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $41 28d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $41 28d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $40 40d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $40 40d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 90d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 90d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 90d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 90d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $40 90d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $40 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 91d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $30 91d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $30 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 91d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $38 91d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $36 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $36 92d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $34 92d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 92d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $39 92d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $39 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.