Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x676d…9928 crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%87W / 1L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 0% +$1
tech 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 20% -9.3%
≤90d 30 -2.7% -11.9% 97% 3% -9.7%
all 88 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses87 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage244d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? May 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 1? May 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 28? Apr 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 20? Apr 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? Apr 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? Apr 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 21? Mar 22 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 19? Mar 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $106 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 28? Mar 01 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22? Feb 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 8? Feb 08 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $109 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $102 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 47d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? BUY No 87¢ $3 51d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $95 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $95 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $94 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $94 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $92 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $93 66d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 67d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 99¢ $2 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 75d
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $108 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $109 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $111 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $111 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $106 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.98 · official $106.98 (match) · 180 history records