Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x6770…f1e8 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+1%) realized +$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%18W / 91L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$11
politics 25% −$5
sports 9% +$119
crypto 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 109 +4.2% -5.7% 17% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 8% -9.0%
10% -14.8% 7% -17.7%
15% -23.0% 6% -25.7%
20% -30.5% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×22.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses18 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage132d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $170 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $143 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $184 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $375 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $366 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $273 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $137 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $134 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $443 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $346 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $491 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $349 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $464 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $319 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $142 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bubba Watson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $172 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $385 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $129 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $129 26d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $143 26d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $143 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $184 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $184 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $141 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $184 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $184 30d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $173 30d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $173 31d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $136 31d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $136 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $141 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $141 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 344 history records