Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6770…5bdf sports 586 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,002 (-26%) realized −$11,980 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%295W / 288L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day183.3pace
Fees−$525est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$366
other 3% +$1,552
crypto 1% −$359
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 50% -4.0%
≤30d 583 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 46% -7.8%
≤90d 583 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 46% -7.8%
all 583 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 46% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 46% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 39% -16.7%
15% -27.3% 31% -24.7%
20% -34.4% 23% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$51 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$11,980
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses295 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$525
Open positions2
Markets (closed)583 / 586
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day183.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Samobor: Luca Castagnola vs Nazar Oliynykov Nazar Oliynykov 37¢ 40¢ $32 $34 +$3 (+8%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $196 +$23 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $19 +$108 +567%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina Jun 17 $16 +$4 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $21 +$17 +79%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $46 +$3 +6%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 17 $43 +$57 +132%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 17 $800 −$800 -100%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $735 +$878 +119%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $18 +$33 +186%
ITF Irvine: Tia Messerli vs Yulia Zhytelna Jun 16 $41 +$16 +39%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $74 +$17 +24%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $33 +$6 +19%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $35 +$35 +100%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $20 +$49 +250%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $55 +$26 +47%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $74 +$23 +30%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $53 +$52 +98%
ITF Haskovo: Lidia Encheva vs Irina Fetecau Jun 16 $27 +$10 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Samobor: Luca Castagnola vs Nazar Oliynykov BUY Nazar Oliynykov 37¢ $32 8m
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 96¢ $47 1h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 93¢ $48 1h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 85¢ $101 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 80¢ $4 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 15¢ $19 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 39¢ $3 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 6¢ $19 6h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 94¢ $46 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $21 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 3¢ $16 8h
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara BUY Bruno Kuzuhara 81¢ $19 8h
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina BUY Criollos de Caguas 80¢ $16 9h
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara BUY Bruno Kuzuhara 31¢ $24 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 29¢ $18 9h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 22¢ $23 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 63¢ $30 9h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 93¢ $1,613 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $33 10h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 75¢ $10 10h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 38¢ $611 11h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 87¢ $43 12h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 75¢ $44 12h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 77¢ $27 12h
ITF Irvine: Tia Messerli vs Yulia Zhytelna BUY Yulia Zhytelna 71¢ $41 12h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 93¢ $27 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 92¢ $5 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 86¢ $21 13h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 77¢ $28 13h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 36¢ $29 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.37 · official $33.94 (match) · 3500 history records