Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6770…c3bd sports 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,051 (-20%) realized −$10,320 · open −$1,731
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%62W / 422L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Fees−$652est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$5,090
other 9% −$1,363
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 425 -66.3% -69.5% 9% 7% -91.9%
≤30d 425 -66.3% -69.5% 9% 7% -91.9%
≤90d 484 -45.3% -50.5% 13% 10% -75.7%
all 484 -45.3% -50.5% 13% 10% -75.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.5% 10% -75.7%
10% ← realistic here -55.2% 8% -78.0%
15% -59.5% 7% -80.2%
20% -63.5% 6% -82.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$167 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$4,679
Realized−$10,320
Unrealized−$1,731
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses62 / 422
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$652
Open positions36
Markets (closed)484 / 205
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$298
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Team Bald 54¢ 50¢ $991 $922 −$69 (-7%)
ITF Claremont: Oliver Ojakaar vs Jagger Leach Jagger Leach 39¢ 93¢ $77 $183 +$106 (+138%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 59¢ 59¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+0%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ 50¢ $70 $56 −$14 (-20%)
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 65¢ 36¢ $98 $54 −$44 (-45%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 50¢ 50¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C DFX Peek 26¢ 28¢ $24 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 53¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 50¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 54¢ 56¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs QUINTESSÊNCIA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group A BESTIA Academy 95¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto Ana Candiotto 17¢ 64¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+276%)
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 75¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
ITF Claremont: Oliver Ojakaar vs Jagger Leach Oliver Ojakaar 68¢ 7¢ $53 $5 −$47 (-90%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 87¢ 85¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings Mi New York 58¢ 6¢ $16 $1 −$14 (-90%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 17¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 40¢ 0¢ $282 $0 −$281 (-100%)
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner the bug 76¢ 0¢ $322 $0 −$322 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group B HOTU Academy 24¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner SaD Esports 46¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$163 (-100%)
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire Kent 60¢ 0¢ $179 $0 −$179 (-100%)
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Gloucestershire Gloucestershire 42¢ 0¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 435 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 26 $1,372 −$2,745 -200%
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 26 $31 −$21 -69%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 26 $1,183 −$1,183 -100%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs INTZ (BO3) - South America League Kickoff Pl Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 26 $37 −$74 -201%
Sarasota: Hugo Dellien vs Darwin Blanch Jun 26 $227 −$198 -87%
Credit One Charleston Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfi Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 26 $5 −$10 -200%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-04-05? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 P Jun 26 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 26 $271 −$271 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 26 $7 +$132 +1898%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Alianza FC vs. AD Pasto end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $309 −$309 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - United21 Pla Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 26 $2,415 −$2,903 -120%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Jun 26 $50 −$100 -200%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Madrid: Polina Kudermetova vs Lisa Pigato Jun 26 $116 −$93 -80%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 26 $195 −$390 -200%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-13? Jun 26 $6 −$13 -203%
Will Haiti vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 26 $100 −$183 -182%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 26 $2,351 −$2,388 -102%
Sarasota: Andres Andrade vs Tyler Zink Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Barcelona Open: Reilly Opelka vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Xinyu Wang vs Harmony Jun 26 $20 −$14 -71%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Ch Jun 26 $34 −$42 -124%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $386 −$386 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 26 $389 −$430 -111%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP R Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Alina Charaeva vs Jes Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 26 $96 −$1 -2%
Busan: Renta Tokuda vs Coleman Wong Jun 26 $26 +$48 +184%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Madrid: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 26 $152 −$152 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $27 1m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 61¢ $7 2m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $14 2m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $6 4m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 26¢ $3 10m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 26¢ $7 11m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 26¢ $9 14m
ITF Claremont: Oliver Ojakaar vs Jagger Leach BUY Jagger Leach 64¢ $11 15m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 71¢ $36 17m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 26¢ $6 18m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 26¢ $1 21m
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ SELL 100 Thieves 99¢ $294 22m
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY For Fun Esports 1¢ $0 23m
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY For Fun Esports 1¢ $0 23m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $4 23m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $6 23m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $29 24m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY MIBR Academy 75¢ $8 34m
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 65¢ $33 36m
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 65¢ $33 36m
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 65¢ $33 36m
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage SELL SaD Esports 100¢ $106 39m
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY 100 Thieves 68¢ $13 41m
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY Team Evictix 11¢ $1 41m
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY Team Evictix 10¢ $1 41m
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY SaD Esports 90¢ $11 41m
ITF Claremont: Oliver Ojakaar vs Jagger Leach BUY Jagger Leach 44¢ $4 43m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 42¢ $5 44m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL Keyd 100¢ $46 44m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Keyd 100¢ $200 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,679.37 · official $4,668.14 (match) · 3500 history records