Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6779…2ff6 other 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$839 (+1%) realized +$508 · open +$331
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%175W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$35,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$275
14 days+$243
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$151
other 25% +$196
sports 7% −$138
politics 4% +$14
tech 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$40
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -15.1% -23.2% 70% 26% -6.9%
≤30d 82 -12.3% -20.6% 73% 28% -6.9%
≤90d 247 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 42% -9.7%
all 247 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 42% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 42% -9.7%
10% -25.9% 28% -18.4%
15% -33.1% 19% -26.3%
20% -39.7% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$43 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$35,111
Realized+$508
Unrealized+$331
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses175 / 72
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions20
Markets (closed)247 / 266
History coverage66d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $14,312 $14,493 +$181 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $7,557 $7,578 +$22 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $6,245 $6,278 +$33 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,150 $2,160 +$10 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,800 $1,859 +$59 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,102 $1,125 +$23 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $370 $437 +$68 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $270 $273 +$3 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $230 $221 −$9 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $245 $193 −$52 (-21%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 18 $200 +$20 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$187 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 17 $400 +$9 +2%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$24 -78%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $222 +$107 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $97 −$43 -44%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $110 +$6 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $122 +$8 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $4,308 +$234 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $300 +$1 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $132 +$100 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$3 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$83 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +23%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $251 +$28 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$7 -70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $301 +$17 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $400 +$7 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $400 +$11 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $101 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $20 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $300 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $50 9h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $220 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $10 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $250 14h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $279 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $103 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $30 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $20 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 20h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $112 20h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $100 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 26h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 98¢ $100 30h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $200 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $6 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $100 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $100 34h
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 39¢ $51 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $20 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,111.47 · official $35,111.47 (match) · 806 history records