Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x677d…c793 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%61W / 1L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% $0
weather 21% $0
world 12% +$1
politics 9% +$1
other 7% $0
tech 2% +$2
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 31 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 62 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.86 per $1 lost it wins $5.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses61 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage544d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on June 1? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 23? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C or below on May 9? May 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 3? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 3? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 4? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 3? May 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26? May 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25? May 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 23? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 24? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on April 24 Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 20? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 20? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 22? Apr 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 12°C or below on April 20 Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 17? Apr 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15? Apr 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 on April 8? Apr 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 09 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? May 06 $6 $0 +2%
Trump pauses all reciprocal tariffs other than China before Wednesday? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
RFK's daughter-in-law picked as CIA deputy director? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before March? Mar 09 $2 $0 +1%
Trump positive favorability on March 1? Mar 09 $9 $0 +0%
AfD banned before German election? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 21? Mar 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? Feb 20 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 37d
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $14 45d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 45d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 45d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $47 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $38 51d
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? BUY No 100¢ $16 51d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $50 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $17 57d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 57d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 57d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $28 63d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $40 63d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on April 24 BUY No 100¢ $31 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $17 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $14 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $12 68d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $11 68d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $29 70d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $14 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 70d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 12°C or below on April 20 BUY No 100¢ $23 70d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 73d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $33 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.13 · official $72.13 (match) · 130 history records