Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x677e…5072 other 671 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$870 (+2%) realized +$871 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%384W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$124
14 days−$346
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$32
sports 25% +$639
world 1% +$60
crypto 0% −$29
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% -16.9%
≤30d 75 -15.6% -23.6% 51% 51% -16.2%
≤90d 317 +6.5% -3.7% 60% 59% -3.4%
all 669 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 57% -8.0%
10% -16.8% 55% -16.8%
15% -24.9% 50% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 37% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$70 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$871
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses384 / 285
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions2
Markets (closed)669 / 671
History coverage238d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $122 +$61 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$37 -72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$33 -66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$62 +121%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $51 −$30 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 +$19 +38%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $101 +$31 +31%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $51 +$32 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $51 −$35 -70%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 04 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $51 +$36 +70%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $152 −$100 -66%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $25 +$34 +133%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $50 +$24 +48%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $101 −$48 -47%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $101 −$3 -3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $101 +$68 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $122 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $113 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 7d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.92 · official $148.92 (match) · 1195 history records