Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x677e…4a1f sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$514 (+14%) realized +$514 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$118
other 22% −$46
world 1% +$456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+102.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +124.2% +102.9% 43% 14% -3.4%
≤30d 21 +124.2% +102.9% 43% 14% -3.4%
≤90d 21 +124.2% +102.9% 43% 14% -3.4%
all 21 +124.2% +102.9% 43% 14% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +102.9% 14% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here +83.4% 14% -12.6%
15% +65.7% 14% -21.1%
20% +49.5% 14% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +124% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +250% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$28 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $290 +$11 +4%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $837 −$193 -23%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $799 +$18 +2%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $42 −$25 -60%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $69 $0 -0%
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $649 +$96 +15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $46 +$456 +994%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 −$3 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$8 -31%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 −$14 -56%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 −$12 -49%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $25 +$24 +98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $148 +$3 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $99 −$5 -6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $35 +$1 +4%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 −$18 -37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 −$7 -11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 −$24 -47%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 81¢ $301 47m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $89 49m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $101 49m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $101 50m
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $104 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $520 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $199 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $11 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $0 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $100 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $9 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $187 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $20 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $818 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $142 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $37 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $13 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $200 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $8 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $200 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $198 1h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 3h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 19¢ $60 4h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $16 4h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 4h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $69 4h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $743 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records