Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x677f…59ad other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$370 (-0%) realized −$368 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%156W / 12L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$820per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$113
14 days+$294
30 days−$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$371
weather 13% +$229
politics 8% −$234
world 7% −$19
economics 5% +$58
culture 5% +$84
sports 5% +$62
finance 5% −$1,082
tech 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 92% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 168 -0.7% -10.2% 93% 0% -9.8%
all 168 -0.7% -10.2% 93% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,251) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$183 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,619
Realized−$368
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses156 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage54d
Avg bet$820
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,237 $1,235 −$2 (-0%)
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 98¢ $384 $384 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 21 $2,132 −$10 -0%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $192 +$4 +2%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,297 +$25 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $2,278 +$20 +1%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $1,081 +$11 +1%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $863 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $310 +$5 +2%
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 15 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2,004 +$22 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $2,204 +$26 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,666 +$32 +2%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $239 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,938 +$38 +2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,943 +$21 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,080 +$22 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $297 +$5 +2%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 11 $618 +$6 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,447 +$12 +1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $566 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $573 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $292 +$6 +2%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $279 +$4 +2%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $1,178 +$22 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,010 +$13 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $763 −$53 -7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $2,421 −$1,046 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,806 +$24 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,763 +$43 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2,617 +$31 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5,379 +$69 +1%
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 03 $767 −$370 -48%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $2,082 +$23 +1%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $2,983 +$38 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 01 $106 +$1 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,972 +$27 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $1,774 +$19 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,007 +$35 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? May 29 $2,524 +$43 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $2,915 +$45 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2,874 +$40 +1%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between May 27 $311 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 2 May 27 $1,446 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $192 1h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $192 1h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $196 1h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $97 1h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $395 1h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $353 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $2,121 1h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $181 21h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $14 21h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 46h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 46h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $33 2d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $95 2d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $176 3d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $588 4d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $379 4d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1,164 4d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $87 4d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $87 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $137 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $533 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $742 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $722 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $188 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $136 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $517 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,618.59 · official $1,618.59 (match) · 1853 history records