Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6780…41cc
weather · 196 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$307 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$217 · open +$90
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$492
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses131 / 58
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)189 / 196
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 7 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$86
14 days+$153
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $69 $105 +$37 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $51 $70 +$19 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $61 $70 +$8 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 79¢ 73¢ $56 $51 −$5 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? No 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 4? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 7? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 28? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 20? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 21? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Badenhorst vs Santillan Santillan 64¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 66¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Chelsea FC 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 +$16 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $112 +$29 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $122 −$68 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 +$33 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $56 +$15 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 +$20 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $108 +$32 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $128 +$12 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $44 +$27 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 +$28 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $35 +$34 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$52 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $129 +$11 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $63 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$20 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 +$15 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$14 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $60 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $101 +$34 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $67 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $63 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $65 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $63 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $33 −$6 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $88 −$87 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $62 −$62 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $122 −$119 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $48 −$47 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $28 +$72 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $60 +$65 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 80% +$73
other 10% +$182
sports 5% +$136
world 3% +$20
finance 1% −$100
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $66 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $52 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $62 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $67 22h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $62 24h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $69 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $67 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 29h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $63 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $57 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 76¢ $52 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 88¢ $62 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 77¢ $55 31h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 47h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 47h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? BUY Yes 94¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 78¢ $56 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $67 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 95¢ $67 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 87¢ $61 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 79¢ $56 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 87¢ $61 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 73¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +6.2% -3.9% 78% 45% -7.0%
≤30d 171 +8.4% -1.9% 68% 43% -8.2%
≤90d 189 +7.2% -3.0% 69% 42% -7.7%
all 189 +7.2% -3.0% 69% 42% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 42% -7.7%
10% -12.3% 30% -16.5%
15% -20.8% 21% -24.6%
20% -28.5% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.35 · official $492.62 (match) · 434 history records