Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

67 0x6780…4d12 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$65 (-17%) realized −$60 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	31%	31%	-25.6%
≤30d	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	31%	31%	-25.6%
≤90d	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	31%	31%	-25.6%
all	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	31%	31%	-25.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.1%	31%	-25.6%
10%	-10.6%	31%	-32.7%
15%	-19.2%	25%	-39.2%
20%	-27.1%	25%	-45.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late -1% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$21 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$33

Realized−$60

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage5d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	EDward Gaming	33¢	26¢	$20	$15	−$5 (-23%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	20¢	19¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	75¢	74¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$36	−$35	-98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$42	−$40	-96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$20	+$49	+238%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran?	Jun 16	$10	+$23	+226%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 15	$50	+$13	+26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$31	−$30	-98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5	Jun 14	$20	+$22	+109%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$10	+$67	+650%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$4	40m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4	40m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	20¢	$36	27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	17¢	$42	2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	33¢	$20	2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	20¢	$10	2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	2d
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY EDward Gaming	79¢	$50	3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$31	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	23¢	$10	4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5	BUY Over	11¢	$10	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$51	4d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5	BUY No	47¢	$20	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	64¢	$20	4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.61 · official $32.61 (match) · 25 history records