Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6782…c437
crypto · 221 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses87 / 133
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage101d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 220 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$5 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$8 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$5 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$4 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% +$10
other 21% −$22
sports 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 44m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 46m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -6.0% -15.0% 37% 35% -9.3%
≤30d 173 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 37% -18.1%
≤90d 208 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 38% -11.1%
all 220 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 39% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 39% -10.5%
10% -14.7% 37% -19.0%
15% -23.0% 35% -26.8%
20% -30.5% 34% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.22 · official $2.22 (match) · 443 history records