Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

67 0x6783…8cae other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$44 (+2%) realized +$256 · open −$212

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$38

7 days+$71

14 days+$71

30 days+$71

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+24.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+15.7%	+4.7%	67%	67%	+10.1%
≤30d	6	+15.7%	+4.7%	67%	67%	+10.1%
≤90d	14	+59.3%	+44.1%	71%	71%	+21.9%
all	17	+37.1%	+24.0%	65%	59%	+9.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.0%	59%	+9.9%
10%	+12.1%	53%	-0.7%
15%	+1.3%	47%	-10.3%
20%	-8.6%	24%	-19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +55% → late +21% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$45 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage

Net worth$723

Realized+$256

Unrealized−$212

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)17 / 21

History coverage595d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	56¢	40¢	$694	$498	−$196 (-28%)
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	41¢	36¢	$123	$108	−$15 (-12%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$65	$64	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	53¢	52¢	$53	$52	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$68	+$32	+48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$83	−$83	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$44	+$56	+129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$68	+$32	+48%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$8	−$8	-97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$59	+$41	+70%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid	May 01	$22	+$4	+18%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	May 01	$384	+$116	+30%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	May 01	$68	+$32	+47%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	Apr 28	$12	−$11	-98%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Apr 28	$13	+$87	+669%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Apr 28	$64	+$86	+134%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?	Apr 01	$57	−$57	-100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Apr 01	$84	+$31	+38%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Feb 13	$4	−$4	-100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Feb 12	$108	−$108	-100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$5	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	65¢	$66	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$54	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$68	10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$83	21h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$80	38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$68	2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$44	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$59	6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	45¢	$90	16d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	67¢	$67	39d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	69¢	$138	40d
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	41¢	$123	44d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	75¢	$152	45d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid	SELL Yes	86¢	$26	53d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	46¢	$94	53d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	BUY No	69¢	$71	55d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid	BUY Yes	72¢	$22	56d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	BUY Yes	38¢	$12	56d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	BUY No	72¢	$140	56d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	51¢	$15	83d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?	BUY No	89¢	$18	83d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	SELL No	100¢	$115	83d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	62¢	$4	105d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	13¢	$6	109d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY Yes	62¢	$58	113d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	114d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	114d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	114d
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	114d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.15 · official $729.30 (match) · 61 history records