Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6786…f316
other · 160 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$74 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$102 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses10 / 149
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage96d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $181 −$2 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $57 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $239 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $225 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $369 −$3 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $65 −$4 -5%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $245 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 02 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $99 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $368 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $403 −$3 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $251 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $198 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $117 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $480 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 29% −$27
other 26% −$18
sports 18% −$14
crypto 9% −$17
economics 8% −$3
culture 4% −$2
world 4% −$5
finance 2% −$8
tech 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $56 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $56 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 7h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 14h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $63 15h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $63 21h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $52 21h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $3 26h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $33 26h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $17 26h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $57 27h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $40 31h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $17 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $63 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $64 39h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $57 39h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $58 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $58 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $63 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $63 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $68 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $68 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $68 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $68 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 96¢ $64 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 96¢ $64 3d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 3d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 74 -0.8% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 155 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 159 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.38 · official $53.38 (match) · 675 history records