Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6786…c8ff weather 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$288 (-10%) realized −$352 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%31W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$129
14 days+$225
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$208
sports 3% +$92
culture 1% −$35
other 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.2% +25.9% 83% 83% +26.0%
≤30d 14 +31.8% +19.2% 71% 71% +7.8%
≤90d 69 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -12.2%
all 69 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 45% -12.2%
10% -29.3% 35% -20.6%
15% -36.1% 28% -28.3%
20% -42.4% 17% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses31 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage45d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? No 27¢ 100¢ $27 $100 +$73 (+270%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? No 74¢ 66¢ $74 $66 −$8 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $96 +$25 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $30 +$68 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $79 +$17 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $71 +$14 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$28 +110%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$48 +189%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$31 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $133 −$43 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $62 +$33 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $71 −$62 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $41 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $29 −$18 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $24 +$25 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 24? May 24 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 24? May 24 $84 −$23 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $14 +$5 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 24? May 24 $34 +$16 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $16 −$12 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23? May 24 $30 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 24? May 23 $23 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 24? May 23 $15 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 23? May 23 $13 −$11 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $27 −$18 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $48 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $50 +$12 +25%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $16 −$15 -95%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 22 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 22? May 22 $169 −$37 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $40 −$33 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 21? May 22 $47 +$16 +35%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 21 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 22? May 21 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $18 −$11 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21? May 21 $50 −$25 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $137 +$60 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 22? May 21 $1 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 22? May 21 $16 −$6 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 21? May 21 $32 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 21? May 21 $22 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $18 +$14 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $13 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $18 −$8 -47%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $34 +$16 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 21? May 21 $16 −$16 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 96¢ $25 46m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 96¢ $96 47m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 27¢ $28 54m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 33¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 78¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 78¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 65¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 74¢ $75 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $77 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 30¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 79¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 79¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 79¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 79¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.45 · official $165.45 (match) · 355 history records