Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x6787…ff88 sports 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$215 (+1%) realized +$213 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%57W / 49L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$174
14 days+$1,131
30 days+$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$612
other 30% −$297
politics 5% +$56
crypto 1% −$266
tech 0% −$64
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +9.6% -0.9% 74% 53% -8.0%
≤30d 49 +15.7% +4.6% 67% 49% -3.1%
≤90d 49 +15.7% +4.6% 67% 49% -3.1%
all 106 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 38% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 38% -9.4%
10% -20.4% 34% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 26% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 23% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$76 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses57 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions4
Markets (closed)106 / 111
History coverage158d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 45¢ 46¢ $45 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Under 23¢ 24¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $91 +$48 +52%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $38 +$25 +65%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $43 +$13 +29%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $43 +$20 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $56 −$9 -17%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $86 +$16 +18%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $91 +$9 +10%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $32 +$30 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $33 −$22 -66%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $197 −$155 -78%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $178 +$182 +103%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $195 +$1 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $63 +$20 +32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $45 −$20 -45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$19 +24%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $3,628 +$45 +1%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5,099 +$16 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $380 +$120 +32%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $110 +$190 +172%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $323 +$10 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $652 −$4 -1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $66 −$61 -92%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $62 +$8 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $83 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $38 +$62 +165%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$36 +71%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $654 +$641 +98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $670 −$368 -55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 +$97 +95%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 +$119 +119%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $67 −$66 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$56 +112%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 +$21 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $78 −$50 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $55 +$127 +229%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $715 +$51 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $374 +$443 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $270 −$266 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $386 −$5 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 30 $578 −$578 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $46 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND BUY 11¢ $10 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $24 11h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $40 22h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $99 22h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 23h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 63¢ $62 23h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $55 23h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 63¢ $62 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Norway 47¢ $46 24h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 37¢ $38 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 55¢ $56 24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $91 39h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 84¢ $84 39h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 83¢ $2 39h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Czechia 23¢ $11 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $32 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 65¢ $33 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 9¢ $42 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 40¢ $197 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $62 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $88 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $18 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $6 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.50 · official $223.23 · 519 history records