Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6792…1565 crypto 1389 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$717 (+2%) realized +$717 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate92%1274W / 115L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$3
14 days+$226
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 60% -8.6%
≤30d 69 +4.2% -5.7% 81% 41% -3.5%
≤90d 1102 +0.6% -8.9% 91% 20% -8.5%
all 1389 +1.2% -8.5% 92% 19% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 19% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 9% -17.1%
15% -25.2% 6% -25.1%
20% -32.6% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$717
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1274 / 115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1389 / 1389
History coverage94d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1389 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$52 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$60 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$25 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$25 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$26 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $63 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$65 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$115 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $61 +$36 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $41 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 31 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 30 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 30 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 30 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $62 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $60 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $61 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $61 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $60 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $62 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $61 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $63 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $61 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $62 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $62 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $61 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3394 history records