Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6792…b5f3 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-16%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$2
other 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 19% -8.7%
≤30d 16 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 19% -8.7%
≤90d 16 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 19% -8.7%
all 16 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 19% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 19% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 12% -17.4%
15% -37.1% 6% -25.4%
20% -43.2% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$11 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records