Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6796…453f sports 836 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,999 (-16%) realized −$1,999 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%338W / 528L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day95.2pace
Fees−$291est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,310
7 days−$1,351
14 days−$1,496
30 days−$2,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$954
other 12% −$438
crypto 2% −$9
politics 0% +$6
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -23.5% -30.8% 32% 30% -46.0%
≤30d 692 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 36% -27.6%
≤90d 866 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 36% -26.3%
all 866 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 36% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 36% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 32% -33.4%
15% -35.8% 24% -39.8%
20% -42.1% 17% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,999
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses338 / 528
Est. fees paid−$291
Open positions0
Markets (closed)866 / 836
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day95.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 866 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 16 $13 −$3 -24%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $12 −$54 -430%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-03-07? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Lilli Tagger Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Solana Sierra vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 16 $13 −$64 -473%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -27%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-05-01? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucc Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $18 +$19 +107%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $112 −$111 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $48 −$5 -12%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $104 −$38 -36%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $64 −$15 -24%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $25 −$6 -23%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $27 +$8 +31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $58 −$5 -9%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 −$7 -38%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) Jun 16 $11 +$6 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 −$74 -62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $37 −$4 -10%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $17 −$15 -86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $114 −$42 -37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $152 +$41 +27%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$2 -53%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $24 −$2 -10%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $6 −$3 -43%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $42 19m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $48 22m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Athletics 34¢ $67 27m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 44¢ $45 29m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 59¢ $60 31m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 33¢ $34 41m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $2 43m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 28¢ $29 44m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 49¢ $48 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 39¢ $19 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $25 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $12 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $15 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $3 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $2 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $3 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $28 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $36 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $27 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 53¢ $50 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 56¢ $3 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $32 2h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) SELL St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ $11 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $26 2h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $18 2h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 84¢ $17 2h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $11 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records