Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x6797…42fb other 503 markets active 2h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-0%) realized −$103 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate60%285W / 187L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$34
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$469
sports 24% −$531
politics 10% +$15
culture 5% −$202
crypto 5% +$92
world 4% −$184
finance 4% +$36
tech 1% +$11
economics 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.2% +16.0% 100% 100% +16.0%
≤30d 12 +29.4% +17.1% 58% 50% -1.7%
≤90d 65 -31.0% -37.6% 25% 22% -20.7%
all 472 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 25% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 18% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 17% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$2,181
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses285 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions29
Markets (closed)472 / 503
History coverage700d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 66¢ 46¢ $499 $346 −$153 (-31%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 69¢ 53¢ $421 $321 −$100 (-24%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 36¢ 66¢ $150 $280 +$130 (+87%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+18%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $185 $169 −$16 (-9%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 63¢ $155 $145 −$10 (-6%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $94 $138 +$44 (+46%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 80¢ 72¢ $80 $72 −$8 (-9%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+4%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 49¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+15%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $65 $55 −$10 (-15%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 47¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+47%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 20¢ $101 $38 −$63 (-62%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $35 $24 −$10 (-30%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 40¢ 56¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-51%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 1¢ 24¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+1683%)
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 22¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+267%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-67%)
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? No 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 17¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 23 $91 +$26 +28%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $232 −$11 -5%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 10 $35 +$19 +55%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $20 −$6 -28%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$16 -46%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 +$109 +303%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 +$29 +118%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? May 30 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 23 $26 +$38 +148%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $151 +$21 +14%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 23 $158 +$79 +50%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 23 $208 +$98 +47%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will "Comparison" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas May 11 $21 +$57 +279%
Will "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will "Competent" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will "OpenClaw" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Anok Yai be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 05 $19 +$42 +226%
Will Sabrina Carpenter be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 05 $105 +$102 +96%
Will Doja Cat be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 04 $70 −$68 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 04 $202 −$195 -97%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 15 $270 −$14 -5%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $640 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Apr 08 $20 $0 -2%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Apr 08 $506 −$40 -8%
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 227.5 Apr 08 $480 −$30 -6%
Will Vance say "God" or "Hell" 5+ times during his Rocky Mount visit? Apr 08 $15 −$4 -27%
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top global N Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale? Apr 08 $63 −$32 -50%
Will $PUP receive a perp listing by March 31? Apr 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Vance say "Gasoline" during his Rocky Mount visit? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Scor BUY 12¢ $5 1h
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY 14¢ $10 2h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2h
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $51 2h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 78¢ $70 12d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 51¢ $30 12d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 56¢ $25 12d
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 12d
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 40¢ $15 12d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 77¢ $20 12d
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 12d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $221 12d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 51¢ $34 12d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 56¢ $34 12d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $54 12d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 59¢ $35 14d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 52¢ $38 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $46 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 15d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 17d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $39 17d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 17d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 17d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 17d
Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18d
Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18d
Will Raphinha win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,181.43 · official $2,196.43 (match) · 1733 history records