Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x6797…e0e5 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,279 (-10%) realized −$1,279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%53W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days−$318
14 days−$836
30 days−$907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$891
other 31% −$529
crypto 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 56% -14.2%
≤30d 89 -14.2% -22.4% 52% 52% -16.8%
≤90d 104 -15.6% -23.6% 51% 50% -19.5%
all 104 -15.6% -23.6% 51% 50% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 50% -19.5%
10% -30.9% 49% -27.2%
15% -37.6% 39% -34.3%
20% -43.7% 24% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$98 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses53 / 51
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage34d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $338 +$175 +52%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 18 $172 +$69 +40%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $199 +$71 +36%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $133 −$132 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $261 +$71 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $350 −$89 -26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$51 -50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $166 −$165 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $131 +$37 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $212 +$121 +57%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $194 +$120 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $182 +$108 +59%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $298 +$87 +29%
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina Jun 16 $146 −$144 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $91 +$53 +58%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $91 +$92 +101%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $91 +$104 +114%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $196 −$195 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $145 −$143 -98%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 −$67 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $295 −$95 -32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 −$174 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $97 +$131 +135%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$46 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $274 −$75 -28%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaur Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $99 +$45 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $144 +$59 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $148 −$146 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$46 +45%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $89 −$88 -99%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $117 +$27 +23%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $66 +$52 +79%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $99 +$67 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $162 −$160 -99%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $146 +$115 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $128 −$127 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $81 +$47 +58%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $108 −$107 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $130 −$119 -91%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 10 $137 −$7 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $97 +$40 +41%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $126 −$125 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $109 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $513 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $338 3h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $241 3h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Zverev 71¢ $172 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $269 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 73¢ $199 6h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 69¢ $133 6h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) SELL Fritz 100¢ $332 8h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Fritz 78¢ $261 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $261 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $350 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $51 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $102 23h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 45¢ $102 27h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 74¢ $166 28h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $168 31h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 77¢ $131 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $212 42h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $314 44h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $194 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $290 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $182 47h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 100¢ $385 47h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 77¢ $298 2d
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina BUY Norrie 53¢ $146 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 99¢ $144 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 62¢ $91 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 49¢ $91 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records