Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6798…2d12 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$13 (-31%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$11
other 27% −$2
sports 17% −$2
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -33.2% -39.6% 27% 27% -43.1%
≤30d 15 -33.2% -39.6% 27% 27% -43.1%
≤90d 15 -33.2% -39.6% 27% 27% -43.1%
all 15 -33.2% -39.6% 27% 27% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.6% 27% -43.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.4% 20% -48.6%
15% -50.6% 7% -53.6%
20% -55.5% 7% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 16m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 17m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 23m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $1 3h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 0¢ $0 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $1 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.78 · official $1.78 (match) · 36 history records