Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6798…b03d crypto 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-7%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%104W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day59.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$122
other 17% −$47
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 52% -17.0%
≤30d 197 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 52% -17.0%
≤90d 197 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 52% -17.0%
all 197 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 52% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 52% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 48% -25.0%
15% -28.8% 45% -32.2%
20% -35.7% 40% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses104 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day59.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 75¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $119 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $109 −$95 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $37 −$28 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $129 +$123 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$63 +240%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$31 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 9m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 33m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 49m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $2.56 (match) · 454 history records