trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +16.6% | +5.5% | 43% | 43% | +10.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 56% | 44% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 56% | 44% | -6.2% |
| all | 22 | -18.9% | -26.6% | 41% | 27% | -3.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -26.6% | 27% | -3.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -33.6% | 23% | -12.4% |
| 15% | -40.0% | 18% | -20.9% |
| 20% | -45.9% | 9% | -28.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 62¢ | $1,590 | $1,875 | +$285 (+18%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $30 | $56 | +$26 (+88%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 59¢ | 57¢ | $35 | $34 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 42¢ | 42¢ | $13 | $12 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $12 | $12 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $9 | $7 | −$2 (-24%) |
| Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $4 | $3 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $31 | +$117 | +374% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $30 | +$30 | +97% |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $14 | −$14 | -97% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $33 | −$32 | -99% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $60 | −$59 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$45 | +45% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score | Jun 11 | $22 | −$22 | -98% |
| Will Charli XCX announce a new album by July 31? | Jun 01 | $78 | +$19 | +25% |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? | May 23 | $4,780 | +$105 | +2% |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20? | Feb 17 | $442 | −$442 | -100% |
| Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 09 | $29,676 | +$14,358 | +48% |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 09 | $13,002 | −$3,175 | -24% |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla | Feb 08 | $3,122 | −$3,113 | -100% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5? | Jan 04 | $276 | −$276 | -100% |
| Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C | Jan 03 | $6,432 | +$651 | +10% |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28? | Dec 30 | $910 | −$910 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 16-22? | Dec 18 | $1,190 | −$1,190 | -100% |
| Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? | Dec 17 | $1,250 | −$364 | -29% |
| Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale? | Dec 17 | $2,580 | −$314 | -12% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? | Dec 17 | $1,137 | −$766 | -67% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? | Dec 17 | $4,072 | +$91 | +2% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 9-15? | Dec 15 | $2,876 | +$109 | +4% |