Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
67 0x679c…1f17 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+3%) realized +$33 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.8% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 1 +3.8% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤90d 1 +3.8% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
all 1 +3.8% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 0% -6.0%
10% -15.0% 0% -15.0%
15% -23.2% 0% -23.2%
20% -30.8% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $97 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 17m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 25¢ $101 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $97 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.33 · official $58.33 (match) · 10 history records