Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x67a1…bf0c other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$56 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$4
14 days−$33
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$8
sports 16% +$30
crypto 14% −$17
politics 8% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 67% 67% -11.5%
≤30d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 45% -11.1%
≤90d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 45% -11.1%
all 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 45% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 45% -11.1%
10% -31.0% 45% -19.6%
15% -37.7% 36% -27.4%
20% -43.8% 27% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$37 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage17d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $60 −$59 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$74 +146%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 23m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 24m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $0 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $51 13d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 13d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 78¢ $2 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $52 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.76 · official $131.76 (match) · 41 history records