Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x67a6…9155 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%48W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$7
crypto 34% +$7
tech 8% +$1
world 7% +$1
sports 6% +$1
politics 5% −$1
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 6 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.8%
all 49 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -8.2%
10% -16.9% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.69 per $1 lost it wins $13.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses48 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage599d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? No 99¢ 98¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 19 $27 +$1 +4%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 19 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 May 4-10? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? May 07 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? May 07 $22 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? May 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, May 07 $24 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m May 07 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $30 $0 +1%
Will Radoslaw Wojtaszek win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championshi Feb 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28? Feb 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will BNB dip to $700 in December? Feb 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Feb 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Feb 22 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Feb 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Dec 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Dec 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Dec 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 28? Dec 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 July 28–August 3? Oct 27 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August? Oct 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Oct 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Oct 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2025 US Open? Oct 27 $29 $0 +0%
Bybit insolvent before April? Jul 29 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Jul 29 $21 $0 +1%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Jul 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Jul 29 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Jul 29 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jul 29 $22 $0 +2%
Will POTUS tweet 20-24 times Jan 22-29? Mar 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will ECB raise interest rates in January 2025? Mar 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Mar 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champi Mar 17 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? Jan 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 29 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 20 $21 $0 +1%
US bank failure before December? Dec 20 $22 +$1 +3%
Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend? Dec 20 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November? Dec 20 $25 $0 +1%
Ding Liren plays in 2024 World Chess Championship? Nov 25 $24 +$1 +2%
Swell airdrop in 2024? Nov 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $22 −$1 -6%
Tesla sells bitcoin in October? Nov 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Berachain launch a token in October? Nov 05 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY 86¢ $26 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 43d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $28 43d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 96¢ $27 43d
Will Solana reach $110 May 4-10? BUY No 99¢ $29 43d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 98¢ $29 43d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr BUY No 94¢ $20 43d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $30 117d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $30 117d
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, BUY No 98¢ $24 117d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? BUY No 98¢ $22 117d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 117d
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? BUY No 99¢ $22 117d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan BUY No 98¢ $20 175d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $21 175d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $20 175d
Will BNB dip to $700 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 175d
Will Radoslaw Wojtaszek win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championshi BUY No 100¢ $20 175d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 234d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 234d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $26 234d
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $27 234d
Will Lando Norris finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? BUY No 100¢ $25 234d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2025 US Open? BUY No 100¢ $29 324d
Will Ethereum reach $4400 July 28–August 3? BUY No 95¢ $21 324d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.06 · official $164.06 · 104 history records