Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

67 0x67a7…b997 weather 20 markets active 15h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$91 (+40%) realized +$96 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate32%6W / 13L

Drawdown67%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day13.4pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)+30.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+43.7%	+30.0%	32%	26%	+37.1%
≤30d	19	+43.7%	+30.0%	32%	26%	+37.1%
≤90d	19	+43.7%	+30.0%	32%	26%	+37.1%
all	19	+43.7%	+30.0%	32%	26%	+37.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.0%	26%	+37.1%
10%	+17.6%	26%	+24.0%
15%	+6.2%	26%	+12.0%
20%	-4.2%	26%	+1.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -51% → late +129% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$7 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$96

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses6 / 13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage4d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day13.4

Drawdown67%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17?	Yes	30¢	26¢	$45	$40	−$5 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16?	Jun 16	$4	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16?	Jun 16	$10	−$6	-54%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 16?	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$7	−$7	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15?	Jun 16	$27	+$42	+155%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14?	Jun 16	$13	−$8	-62%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12?	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15?	Jun 16	$13	−$13	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15?	Jun 16	$4	+$36	+795%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14?	Jun 16	$9	+$36	+384%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14?	Jun 16	$11	+$43	+396%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju	Jun 16	$18	−$18	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15?	Jun 14	$7	−$6	-84%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15?	Jun 14	$9	−$7	-83%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?	Jun 14	$11	+$30	+272%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17?	SELL Yes	32¢	$7	15h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16?	SELL Yes	60¢	$4	15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16?	SELL Yes	17¢	$5	15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16?	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16?	BUY Yes	58¢	$4	16h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$53	16h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15?	BUY Yes	37¢	$11	42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$27	44h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 16?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15?	BUY Yes	11¢	$4	2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14?	SELL No	100¢	$5	2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?	SELL Yes	95¢	$37	2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14?	BUY Yes	20¢	$9	2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?	SELL Yes	30¢	$4	2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14?	BUY No	19¢	$11	2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$7	3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.88 · official $39.88 (match) · 83 history records