Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67a9…832d world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$2
politics 23% $0
other 16% +$1
crypto 8% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 25% 12% -8.7%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 7% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 7% -10.1%
all 40 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage278d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$3 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -8%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $11 +$1 +8%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 23 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $2 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $19 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $7 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $31 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records