Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67b1…63ec sports 1132 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,591 (-8%) realized −$1,586 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%317W / 798L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 197d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,291
other 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$43
weather 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -39.0% -44.8% 32% 32% -25.4%
≤30d 190 -41.1% -46.7% 25% 25% -33.7%
≤90d 713 -36.9% -42.9% 27% 25% -34.6%
all 1115 -33.5% -39.9% 28% 26% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 26% -31.8%
10% -45.6% 24% -38.4%
15% -50.9% 23% -44.3%
20% -55.7% 21% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$1,586
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses317 / 798
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1115 / 1132
History coverage197d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 29¢ 74¢ $26 $66 +$40 (+155%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 31¢ 26¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $47 −$35 -74%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $42 +$30 +71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $67 −$33 -49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$34 -85%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $27 −$17 -63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 −$13 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$26 +103%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 −$13 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $47 +$27 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$10 +61%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $24 +$19 +77%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $66 +$45 +68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$17 +74%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$18 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 −$18 -44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -86%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $37 −$8 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $35 −$15 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 19¢ $5 8m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 35¢ $5 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $12 19m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 51¢ $12 41m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $62 3h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 44¢ $36 20h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Juan Estevez 76¢ $36 20h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 75¢ $36 20h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY OXEN 29¢ $4 21h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY OXEN 49¢ $10 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $72 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $42 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $12 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 83¢ $63 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $9 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $16 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 24¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $29 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 9¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 23¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 8¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $24 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.02 · official $95.02 (match) · 2764 history records