Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
67 0x67b3…b8e0 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$5
other 23% $0
politics 5% +$4
weather 2% +$13
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 0% -8.4%
all 20 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 10% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 10% -5.5%
10% -11.5% 5% -14.5%
15% -20.1% 5% -22.8%
20% -27.9% 5% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×13.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×68.85 per $1 lost it wins $68.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage490d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $52 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 27 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Mar 20 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February Mar 04 $11 +$13 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $32 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $27 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $10 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $51 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $60 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $54 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records